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Ramstad: Minnesota will be a swing state in the 2028 election

Business

A key influence will be whether Minnesotans like paid family medical leave when it starts in 2026.

By Evan Ramstad

The Minnesota Star Tribune

November 13, 2024 at 11:08AM

State GOP Chair David Hann greets Rep. House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, at a watch party on election night last week. (Glen Stubbe/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

When Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 and again last week, his slimmest victory was in Wisconsin and his smallest loss was in New Hampshire.

In both years, Minnesota was Trump’s next-smallest loss in percentage of votes.

Trump actually fared better in Minnesota last week compared with 2020 in all but two of Minnesota’s 87 counties, Minnesota Star Tribune graphics journalists Yuqing Liu and C.J. Sinner showed in an online illustration and two-page display in Sunday’s newspaper. Lake and Cook counties in the arrowhead were the exception.

That illustration, and the data underneath it, told a lot of stories but showed one thing above all: Minnesota’s generations-long history as a Democratic stronghold is on the verge of ending.

I expect Minnesota will be a swing state in 2028, which will be the first presidential campaign since 2016 without an incumbent in the race. Get ready for the onslaught of advertising our neighbors in Wisconsin routinely endure.

David Schultz, political scientist at Hamline University in St. Paul, said the results last week mirrored polling in recent years about how Minnesotans identify themselves politically.

“A couple generations ago, Democrats had a huge, huge advantage in that,” Schultz said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if, after this election, maybe the Republicans have a lead.”

Many things will happen between now and 2028 to sway voters. There’s a fair chance, perhaps a likelihood, that Trump and Republicans in Washington will overreach, prompting a backlash in the 2026 election and damaging GOP candidates in 2028. That could leave Minnesota solidly blue.

As I wrote this summer, I don’t like Trump’s plans to implement onerous tariffs on imports, trash the dollar, bash the Federal Reserve and cut back on labor supply by deporting workers en masse, even if they came here illegally. There’s a substantial risk those moves will reignite inflation and slow the economy.

Perhaps Trump can make it all work out in the sequencing, first cutting taxes to spur growth that would be fast enough to absorb the braking effects of tariffs and deportations. Stock investors think he and his team are up to it, while the bond market is skeptical.

Democrats’ blind spot is growth, with many in the party unwilling to acknowledge the importance of business and increasing wealth.

Trump’s blind spot is labor. He doesn’t see that the nation’s population growth is slowing, births have plunged and the overall workforce is under pressure from the retirements of baby boomers. And that may be because of race. At least some of his backers are angry that population growth is mainly coming from people of color.

Trump’s running mate JD Vance often says millions of Americans are waiting to enter the workforce once illegal immigrants leave it. It was Gov. Tim Walz, in the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate against Vance, who said businesses tell him they need more workers, not fewer.

“When I go to businesses, sure, they’ll talk about taxes sometimes. But they will lead with child care and they will lead with housing, because we know the problem is, especially in a state like Minnesota, we need more workers,” Walz said. “Because our economy is growing, but we need the workforce.”

Which brings me to the homegrown factor I think will have the biggest influence on whether Minnesota is a swing state in 2028: how Minnesotans perceive the paid family medical leave program set to begin next year.

The legislation was a signal accomplishment of Walz and the DFL-controlled Legislature in 2023, and Walz occasionally mentioned it as he campaigned with Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House. I backed the idea because I believe strongly in workers’ rights and benefits. However, it will bring costs to all Minnesota workers and employers, starting next year. And those costs are already higher than initially envisioned.

By standardizing leave benefits and having the state administer them, many workers will discover the new benefits are not as good as those now offered by their employers. That will be difficult for DFLers.

Execution also matters. Trouble awaits state authorities, and perhaps all legislators no matter their party, if paychecks don’t reach moms on maternity leave.

Some business leaders and lobbyists hope to scale back the paid family medical leave program next spring in the Legislature, where Republicans and the DFL appear headed to an even split of control in the Minnesota House.

“That’s one of the programs Republicans are very nervous about,” said Sen. Mark Johnson, the East Grand Forks Republican who leads the GOP minority in the Minnesota Senate.

Both Johnson and former Sen. Paul Gazelka, who was the GOP’s majority leader when it controlled the Senate from 2016 to 2021, told me this week the key to whether the party tips the balance of power in Minnesota lies in its candidates.

“Part of it is being right on the positions, but I believe Minnesota rewards Minnesota Nice,” Gazelka said. “I would point to (Democratic U.S. Sen.) Amy Klobuchar, who consistently outperforms everybody and publicly treats people nicely. To win in Minnesota, I think a candidate has to be thinking about that.”

Correction: The column originally misstated the last time there was a presidential election without an incumbent running. The most recent year without a presidential incumbent on the ticket was 2016.

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Ramstad: Minnesota will be a swing state in the 2028 election

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