Prediction of the state election in Johor

 3-cornered fight (BN-PH-PN)

In the Johor election, should the election be held, the election would result in a hung state assembly. The election will see Perikatan Nasional win the most seats, then Pakatan Harapan and finally Barisan Nasional. 

Since the election coincides with the Iran war, Perikatan Nasional will emerge as the frontrunner of the state polls because Tan Sri Muhyiddin and his colleagues will unveil similar austerity measures taken during the Covid 19 pandemic which may be favorable to the Malay community in Johor., who are unahappy with the measures taken by Anwar Ibrahim regarding petrol prices. This will greatly affect rural areas. The disgruntlement of Malays with UMNO and Pakatan Harapan might push them to support Perikatan Nasional. 

Although the election result in 2022 was a BN landslide, it was made on the basis that Najib and many other corrupt figures would be released. However, since the GE15 on 19th November 2022, BN has been destabilized. Perikatan Nasional may attempt to win the state to pose their governance as a government in waiting at the federal level and also try to entice Singaporeans and Malaysians working in Singapore that Perikatan is a suitable government for Malaysia. 

Chinese voters in Johor might boycott the election but are considering giving Pakatan Harapan a chance to govern since they are contesting independently of Barisan Nasional. Youth voters will split between BN, PH and PN due to the confusion at the federal level, causing PN to win in Johor. 

56 seats = PN 30, BN 13 and PH 13. 

If PH stepped out of Johor, the seats for BN can increase from 13 to at least 27 seats as it will be due to increasing confidence that PH is not in Johor, which will appease the Malay-Muslim population. 

56 seats = PN 29, BN 27

In the event of a PN victory in Johor, Bersatu might be tasked to govern the state, with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin becoming Menteri Besar for the second time to sustain his political career. Alternatively, the Menteri Besar might be appointed by BN (maybe Onn Hafiz Ghazi or Hishamuddin Hussein) to lead a PN Exco.